Whale Activity Sparks Volatility Concerns for SOL, With Up to 6% Price Shift Expected Before Jobs Data

Whales Offload $46M in SOL as Traders Brace for Volatility Ahead of U.S. Jobs Report

Solana (SOL) is setting up for a potential 5–6% price swing, with traders closely watching both the charts and the calendar. A wave of whale activity and the upcoming U.S. jobs report are fueling expectations of short-term volatility.

Implied Volatility Signals a Move

The Volmex one-day implied volatility index for SOL suggests a 5.74% move over the next 24 hours, based on its current annualized rate of 109.70%. For context, this falls well within recent norms — Solana has already seen several days of 6%+ swings since March, making today’s expected action more of the same.

Whale Dump Sparks Attention — But Not Panic

Fresh on-chain data from Lookonchain shows that multiple whales recently unstaked and dumped $46.3 million in SOL, a move that would normally raise red flags. However, considering Solana’s $4.7 billion in daily trading volume, the sell-off only accounts for about 1%, limiting its immediate downside impact.

SOL is currently hovering around $116, slightly off from Thursday’s dip to $112. Still, the token remains in a broader downtrend after peaking at $295 back in January.

All Eyes on the Jobs Report

The non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, could be the next major catalyst. Analysts expect 130,000 new jobs in March, down from 151,000 in February, and notably below the 12-month average of 162,300, according to FactSet.

If the data comes in softer than expected, it could strengthen the case for four Federal Reserve rate cuts this year — a tailwind for risk assets like crypto.

Q1’s final labor print could be a tipping point: either affirming bearish momentum or providing a macro boost if markets lean into dovish expectations. For now, traders are prepping for movement — not meltdown.