Bitcoin Could Drop Below $60K, Claims Expert Hedge Fund Manager

Bitcoin May Be on the Verge of a Major Downturn, Says Lekker Capital’s Quinn Thompson

Bitcoin’s recent dip could just be the beginning, warns Quinn Thompson, founder of Lekker Capital, who sees the crypto market potentially facing a serious correction reminiscent of the downturn seen in 2022. Thompson believes Bitcoin could drop to the $50K-$59K range by the end of 2025, signaling a 50% decline from its recent peak of over $109,000.

Thompson stated in an interview with CoinDesk, “I foresee Bitcoin heading back into the $50K range by year-end, which would represent a sharp decline from its current position.” He also highlighted that while this drop may not occur quickly, it could be a prolonged process, which might make the decline feel even more painful for investors. “The market won’t be marked by sudden crashes; instead, we’ll see a slow grind down, which is often more unbearable because people will keep wondering if the bottom has been reached,” he explained.

Thompson, who has consistently been cautious on Bitcoin, also criticized recent actions by the U.S. government, including its crypto-related initiatives, labeling them “nothingburgers” and warning investors against getting too excited about them. He has also questioned the long-term bullish effect of companies like MicroStrategy continuously buying Bitcoin, since their purchases appear to be the primary market bid.

Economic Pressures Could Amplify Market Struggles

Thompson’s outlook is rooted in several economic challenges, mainly stemming from policies under the Trump administration, which he believes could weigh on the economy and financial markets in the upcoming months.

1. D.O.G.E. and Government Spending Cuts: Thompson pointed out that the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.) aims to reduce the federal deficit by slashing government spending, which has previously been a key driver of economic growth. Although D.O.G.E. may not meet its ambitious goal of cutting trillions in spending, Thompson expects its early actions to impact consumer sentiment and spending, which could hurt the broader economy.
2. Immigration Policy Impact: The administration’s stricter stance on immigration and increased deportations could strain the labor market. Reduced immigration puts upward pressure on wages, which could lead to higher costs for businesses and potentially reduce their ability to hire or grow.
3. Ongoing Tariff Uncertainty: Thompson also cited the fluctuating tariff situation as a source of concern. With tariffs constantly being introduced or rescinded, businesses are likely to delay investment or hiring decisions, adding to economic uncertainty and limiting potential market growth.
4. Federal Reserve’s Cautious Approach: Despite a rate cut in late 2024, the Federal Reserve has remained cautious in loosening financial conditions due to persistent inflation concerns. Thompson anticipates the Fed will implement additional rate cuts in 2025, but they are likely to be gradual. This lack of aggressive monetary policy may contribute to subdued market performance, especially for risk-sensitive assets like Bitcoin.

Long-Term Outlook: A Challenging Path for Bitcoin

Given the multiple headwinds facing both the broader economy and the crypto market, Thompson believes that Bitcoin and other risk assets are unlikely to recover soon. He pointed out that the government’s lack of urgency about a potential recession is another troubling signal for markets.

“The administration is actively trying to suppress growth, which has directly impacted the high valuations of assets like Bitcoin,” Thompson explained. “The consequence of these policies will be lower asset prices across the board.”

Thompson speculated that the current course could continue until early 2026, especially as political pressure mounts ahead of the midterm elections. He likened the government’s efforts to a controlled burn aimed at preventing bigger economic problems, but warned that such controlled efforts can sometimes spiral out of control. “This could be a long, painful year for markets as the policies unfold,” he concluded.