Chart of the Week: Is April the Turning Point or a Trap for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin Eyes April Rebound After Harsh Q1 Sell-Off, But Caution Persists

The cryptocurrency market closed out the first quarter in turmoil, with more than $160 billion erased from its total value since Friday. Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets have been caught in a wave of selling as traders weigh geopolitical tensions, economic slowdown concerns, and a lack of clear upside drivers.

Former President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff stance has added another layer of pressure, spooking investors and accelerating the move away from risk assets.

Despite the bearish backdrop, historical data suggests April could be a turning point for bitcoin. Since 2010, BTC has averaged a 27% return during April—making it the third-strongest month after November and May, according to Barchart. This seasonal tailwind may offer a glimmer of hope for bulls looking for direction in a shaky market.

CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole recently pointed out in Crypto Daybook Americas that while seasonal indicators alone aren’t foolproof, they gain strength when aligned with other trends—such as a noticeable slowdown in long-term holder selling.

Still, not all indicators are flashing green.

One major risk that could rattle markets further is the ongoing movement of funds linked to the long-defunct Mt. Gox exchange. The company has reportedly started shifting significant BTC holdings to exchanges, prompting concerns about potential liquidation activity from creditors.

“Mt. Gox’s transfers to Kraken could introduce fresh selling pressure and short-term price instability,” warned Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers.

As the crypto market turns the page to Q2, optimism is cautiously brewing—but so are risks. Whether April brings a bounce or more downside could depend as much on history as on unfolding headlines.