XRP’s Bullish Momentum Stalls—$3 Remains the Critical Level to Break

XRP Struggles to Sustain Gains Post-SEC Case, Bearish Signals Grow

Despite excitement surrounding the SEC dropping its lawsuit against Ripple, XRP has failed to capitalize on the bullish sentiment. Instead, key technical indicators are flashing warnings of a potential downtrend.

Following the legal victory, one XRP supporter on X exclaimed, “You’re not bullish enough!”—a sentiment shared by many in the community. The resolution of the long-standing lawsuit had been expected to remove a major roadblock for XRP, which underperformed during the 2021 bull run. Speculation around an XRP ETF and the possibility of it being included in the U.S. strategic reserve added further optimism.

However, XRP’s price action has not reflected this enthusiasm, remaining stuck between $2.30 and $2.50. Despite an 11% surge to $2.59 last Wednesday, the token has struggled to build on those gains, raising concerns about a potential trend reversal.

Technical Indicators Suggest a Bearish Shift

Three-Line Break Chart Signals Weakness

The three-line break chart, a trend-focused technical tool that filters out short-term noise, has printed a red bar on the weekly timeframe. This indicates a shift toward bearish momentum, as a new red bar forming below the lowest point of the previous three green bars often signals the start of a downtrend.

This pattern has historically marked the beginning of extended bearish phases, similar to those seen in early 2018 and mid-2021.

MACD and Moving Averages Point to Further Downside

Another key indicator, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) histogram, has been producing deeper red bars below the zero line, reinforcing the notion of weakening momentum.

Notably, XRP’s MACD turned positive in November, triggering a rally from $1 to above $3. However, the recent bearish crossover of the 5-week and 10-week simple moving averages (SMAs) suggests that downward pressure is building.

Bollinger Bands Indicate Overextension

XRP’s Bollinger Bands, which track price volatility, expanded sharply during the late 2024 and early 2025 rally. Historically, such widening has been followed by corrections, as seen in previous market cycles.

With XRP now struggling to push higher, the risk of a pullback remains elevated.

What Needs to Happen for Bulls to Regain Control?

For XRP to invalidate the bearish setup, it needs to break above the $3 resistance level, last reached on March 2. A move beyond this point would signal renewed bullish momentum and negate the current lower-highs pattern.

While some analysts predict XRP could surge as high as $10 by the end of the decade, the immediate outlook remains uncertain. If XRP fails to regain upward traction, further downside could be on the horizon.