Polymarket Boasts 90% Accuracy in Forecasting Major World Events, Research Shows

Study Reveals Polymarket’s Remarkable Accuracy in Predicting Events

New research shows that Polymarket has a 90% accuracy rate in predicting events a month in advance, with this figure increasing to 94% just hours before the event occurs.

Data scientist Alex McCullough, based in New York City, compiled the findings using a Dune dashboard, analyzing Polymarket’s historical data. To ensure accuracy, he excluded markets where probabilities had already settled above 90% or below 10% before official resolution, preventing skewed results.

What Drives Polymarket’s Predictive Edge?

McCullough’s research suggests that while Polymarket is highly reliable, it tends to slightly overestimate event probabilities. This could be due to behavioral factors like herd mentality, a bias toward high-risk bets, and low liquidity in some markets.

Long-term markets tend to show higher accuracy, mainly because they contain many clearly improbable outcomes that are easy to predict. McCullough pointed to a high-volume market on Gavin Newsom’s presidential chances, noting that his loss was an obvious outcome, which contributed to inflating Polymarket’s accuracy for long-range forecasts.

Sports Betting and Real-Time Accuracy

In contrast, sports betting markets offer a more precise test of Polymarket’s predictive power. With balanced distributions and fewer extreme long shots, these markets reflect how well the platform can anticipate competitive outcomes. McCullough found that accuracy spikes as events approach, with major gains in precision in the final hours before resolution.

Sports betting is a rapidly expanding sector on Polymarket, with over $4.5 billion wagered across NBA, MLB, Champions League, and Premier League events, according to Polymarket Analytics.

Political Implications: A Canadian Example

McCullough’s study also has political significance, particularly in Canada, where Polymarket’s odds suggest Mark Carney, the new Liberal Party leader, is outperforming Conservative Pierre Poilievre by a wider margin than traditional polling data reflects. This insight could influence discussions in Ottawa and beyond, as Polymarket’s track record suggests its predictions may be more reliable than conventional polling methods.