Bitcoin Braces for Another Sell-Off as US Jobs Report Approaches

Bitcoin news: BTC slipped below its 200-day EMA before the latest US employment report, raising concerns about another potential downturn. Historical data reveals that Bitcoin advanced after 52 of 104 jobs reports but declined following each of the previous three releases.

Bitcoin is entering Friday, November 6, with investors focused on the October US nonfarm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. The cryptocurrency finished Thursday’s session at $76,088, falling below its 200-day moving average for the first time since August 19.

Although Bitcoin’s historical response to employment data has been almost evenly divided, its recent performance points to growing downside risks. The latest three reports have all been followed by weekly losses, adding uncertainty to the current market outlook.

A Coinspeaker review covering 104 US jobs reports since January 2018 found that BTC recorded gains 24 hours after 52 announcements. However, Bitcoin’s price declined over the following seven days after the August, September and October releases, falling 3.3%, 5.2% and 3.7%, respectively.

The latest weakness comes as broader financial markets face selling pressure. Bitcoin is currently trading near $76,160, down 5.1% over 24 hours. A sharp decline in technology stocks on Thursday dragged BTC from $80,918 to $75,208, marking its lowest price since September 16. Investor sentiment also weakened, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index falling from 50 to 28 within one day.

Meanwhile, the employment report could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December policy decision. Polymarket traders currently see a 69% probability of a rate increase on December 9, compared with 80% recorded a day earlier.

With Bitcoin struggling to regain an important technical level, traders are assessing whether the latest economic data could extend the sell-off or provide an opportunity for recovery.

How Has Bitcoin Reactеd to Previous Jobs Reports?

Bitcoin’s price behavior immediately after US employment announcements has historically lacked a consistent direction. The seven-day performance provides a slightly clearer picture, although the overall advantage for either buyers or sellers remains limited.

The historical assessment used Binance hourly BTC candles to calculate price changes around the 8:30 a.m. ET announcement time. Report dates were collected from the Bureau of Labor Statistics archive. The October 2025 report was excluded because the US government shutdown prevented its publication.

The analysis produced the following results:

• First hour: Bitcoin moved higher after 58 of 104 announcements, with an average movement of 0.66% in either direction.
• 24 hours later: BTC posted gains after 52 reports, with a median return of 0.07% and an average price fluctuation of 1.92% in either direction.
• Seven days later: Bitcoin finished higher after 57 releases, with a median increase of 0.67%.

Bitcoin’s performance throughout 2026 also reveals a significant change in its reaction to employment data.

During the first seven jobs reports of the year, BTC recorded positive returns over the following week after every release. Weekly gains ranged between 0.5% and 7.6%.

That pattern changed in August, when Bitcoin started recording losses after employment announcements. The cryptocurrency subsequently declined during the week following all three reports released since then.

However, the seven-day comparison has limitations because other market developments can influence Bitcoin during that period. The employment report may not be the only factor responsible for the resulting price movement.

The steepest 24-hour decline in the dataset followed the December 2021 jobs report, when BTC plunged 17.1% amid a weekend liquidation of leveraged positions.

US Employment Data Could Influence the Fed’s December Rate Decision

The latest jobs report arrives as investors debate whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again before the end of the year.

During its October 28 meeting, the Fed maintained its benchmark rate within the 3.75%–4.00% range. The decision passed with a 10–2 vote, while both dissenting members favored a 25-basis-point increase.

Market expectations shifted following Thursday’s technology stock sell-off. Kalshi data showed the probability of a December rate hike falling by 10 percentage points in 24 hours. Meanwhile, the likelihood of the central bank maintaining current rates increased from 22% to 32%.

If the employment figures indicate stronger labor market conditions, expectations for another rate increase could strengthen. This may create additional pressure on Bitcoin as investors reassess the outlook for monetary policy.

Alternatively, weaker employment data could support the case for keeping interest rates unchanged. A reduced likelihood of further tightening may improve market sentiment and offer some relief to cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Recover Its 200-Day EMA?

Bitcoin remains below its 200-day exponential moving average, indicating that its recent recovery attempt has lost momentum.

The 200-day EMA is positioned near $76,540, leaving BTC approximately $380 below the indicator. This breakdown is significant because Bitcoin had maintained daily closing prices above the average since its August breakout.

A sustained move above this level could improve the technical outlook and encourage buyers to target higher resistance zones. However, continued weakness could expose the cryptocurrency to additional losses.

Key resistance levels:

• $76,540: The 200-day EMA and immediate recovery barrier.
• $79,839: The 50-day EMA and the next major resistance.
• $81,196: Wednesday’s high and a potential upside target.

Key support levels:

• $75,208: Thursday’s low and the nearest support zone.
• $74,968: The September 15 low.
• $72,598: The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which could become relevant if selling pressure increases.

Bitcoin’s historical performance suggests that employment reports rarely determine its immediate direction with consistency. Consequently, the cryptocurrency’s ability to recover above the 200-day EMA could provide a more meaningful signal than the initial market reaction to the jobs figures.

If BTC manages to close the week above this indicator, buyers could regain some confidence. However, another close below the average may strengthen bearish sentiment and increase the possibility of a deeper correction.