Bitcoin Selling by Small Investors Suggests a Correction Ahead—Or Does It?

Retail Bitcoin Selling Picks Up, But Exchange Data Shows Strong Buy-Side Demand

As Bitcoin’s price inches closer to the $100,000 threshold, data reveals a sharp increase in retail investor profit-taking. According to Glassnode, retail participants—“shrimps” holding less than one BTC—have sold approximately 75,000 BTC (around $7 billion). This marks their largest wave of distribution since Bitcoin’s March rally above $73,000. Despite the common belief that retail moves signal unsophisticated trading, past trends suggest retail often exits near significant price highs.

Accumulation by Larger Players

While retail investors sell, “sharks” (holders with 100–1,000 BTC) are in accumulation mode. Glassnode data indicates they’ve added over 140,000 BTC to their balances, reflecting a strong appetite among larger market participants.

Divergent Trends in Exchange and OTC Activity

The movement of Bitcoin on exchanges and OTC desks tells a contrasting story. CryptoQuant reports OTC balances jumped by 20,000 BTC following Bitcoin’s surge past $90,000, likely driven by institutional profit-taking. Meanwhile, exchange-held BTC balances have dropped to their lowest levels in two years, at under 3 million BTC, signaling sustained demand from buyers.

Outlook: A Battle of Bulls and Bears

The market appears divided: retail selling suggests a cautious outlook, while declining exchange reserves and accumulation by larger holders point to strong demand. Short-term volatility is expected as these opposing forces play out, but the longer-term trend remains bullish with Bitcoin solidifying its role in broader markets.

Whether this activity signals a looming pullback or a setup for another leg higher depends on how these dynamics resolve in the coming days.