Bitcoin Climbs With Equities While $390M ETF Outflows Cap Bullish Momentum

Bitcoin held above $63,000 on Monday, following the recovery in U.S. equities, but continued ETF outflows and uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act kept investors from turning decisively bullish.

BTC gained around 0.8% since midnight UTC, recovering part of last week’s losses. With no major catalyst behind the move, Bitcoin appeared to be tracking the broader stock market, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5% to their highest level since July 2.

Still, ETF demand remains a concern. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $390 million in combined net outflows last week, including three consecutive sessions of withdrawals—the first such streak since late July. It was the largest weekly outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin products in six weeks.

Ether ETF activity remained relatively subdued, while Solana ETFs posted their strongest weekly inflows since mid-May.

Clarity Act remains a major hurdle

Expectations for the Clarity Act have also weakened. Galaxy Research head of research Alex Thorn cut his estimate on Aug. 14 for the bill to become law in 2026 to roughly 10%. Prediction markets currently put the odds at about 17%.

The Senate has a cloture vote scheduled for Sept. 15, following lawmakers’ return from recess, but market participants increasingly expect another delay.

Derivatives market

Taker positioning remains balanced: The 24-hour long-to-short volume ratio among takers is hovering near neutral, continuing Friday’s pattern. Takers execute trades at available prices, removing liquidity from the order book.

Thin liquidity could magnify price swings: Bitcoin’s futures open interest is around $48 billion, nearly twice its 24-hour trading volume. XRP futures show a similar imbalance. A large liquidation wave could therefore overwhelm available liquidity and trigger sharper price movements.

BTC OI retreats while XRP remains elevated: Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen to about 750,000 BTC from 760,000 BTC on Friday. Since April, spikes above 750,000 BTC have often proved temporary. XRP futures are showing greater strength, with OI still near a 10-month high. ETH and SOL positioning remains comparatively light.

CC shows signs of short buildup: Canton Network’s CC token dropped more than 1.5% over 24 hours, making it one of the weakest performers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies. Futures OI rose more than 5% during the same period, suggesting traders are adding short positions. Negative perpetual funding and a negative OI-adjusted CVD further support the bearish view.

ZEC attracts buyers: Zcash is also seeing higher open interest, but its market signals are more bullish. Positive 24-hour CVD indicates aggressive buying through market orders, while its funding rate has reached +10%, showing a growing preference for long positions.

Volatility remains subdued: Bitcoin and Ether 30-day implied volatility remain near year-to-date lows, pointing to limited demand for options protection. The VIX is also at its lowest level since January.

Options show a bullish tilt: Deribit data indicates demand for BTC and ETH calls at the front end of the curve. The implied-volatility term structure also remains relatively calm ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.

Calls and puts both see heavy activity: BTC calls and puts are both among the five most-traded instruments over the past 24 hours, while Ether options show a similar split.

Altcoin moves

PUMP gained 7.8% since midnight UTC, with daily trading volume jumping 55% to $90 million.

ZEC rose 4.7% to $508, extending the recent strength in privacy-focused tokens following Monero’s rally last week.

MORPHO climbed 5% to $2.07, recovering some of Friday’s losses and leading the broader DeFi sector higher.

HYPE advanced 3.53% to $59.08, leaving it about 2% higher for the week.

FET fell 1.56% to $0.1196, ranking among the weakest altcoins as momentum in AI-linked tokens faded.

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index has improved to 46/100 from 36/100 on Aug. 7, indicating that altcoin sentiment is gradually recovering. However, its Fear and Greed Index remains at 38/100, keeping the broader crypto market in fear territory.