Trump’s China Concerns Loom, but Standard Chartered Keeps $500K BTC Outlook

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Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick continues to stand by his bold Bitcoin forecast of $500,000 before Donald Trump leaves office, even as BTC trades just above $64,000—roughly 49% below its October 2025 high of $126,198.

The gap between current levels and that target is significant, but the more pressing issue is whether the broader thesis still holds—especially after the bank’s earlier $200,000 call for 2025 fell short.

Trump’s renewed backing of Bitcoin, expressed at a White House event on July 6, has put the forecast back in focus. He framed his support around geopolitics, warning that the U.S. risks losing ground if it does not lead in digital assets.

He подчеркed Bitcoin’s growing influence, arguing its capital flows are widely underestimated, and made his stance clear: if the U.S. does not embrace it, China will. This positioning elevates Bitcoin beyond a financial asset, casting it as a strategic priority tied to national competitiveness.

China’s strict crypto bans since 2021, alongside its push for a central bank digital currency, reinforce that narrative. In this context, Trump’s comments present Bitcoin adoption as part of a broader global race for financial and technological leadership.

That view supports Standard Chartered’s bullish outlook. The bank’s thesis rests on expectations of clearer regulation under a pro-crypto administration and rising institutional access through spot Bitcoin ETFs—factors seen as long-term structural drivers.

Kendrick, the bank’s Head of Digital Assets Research, first outlined the $500,000 target in early 2025, linking it to anticipated regulatory tailwinds. At the time, he also projected Bitcoin could hit $200,000 within the year.

That target was missed, with Bitcoin topping out at $126,198 before retreating. Still, Standard Chartered has not revised its long-term outlook, continuing to cite institutional inflows, sovereign adoption, and Bitcoin’s fixed supply as key supports for future growth.

For now, $500,000 remains the bank’s stated goal within Trump’s term. However, with BTC still trading near $64,000 amid macro and geopolitical pressures, the climb remains steep. Near-term price action will likely be the first test of whether the thesis begins to play out.

Not all analysts agree. Some favor a more conservative long-term range in the low-to-mid six figures and warn that further downside could still occur before any sustained recovery emerges.