Bitcoin Bottom Confirmed, According to Samson Mow—Analysts Still Question It

The Bitcoin proponent maintained that his call for a market bottom is rooted in a shift away from the traditional four-year halving cycle, even as many analysts still warn of potential downside ahead.

“The Bitcoin bottom is already in,” Samson Mow wrote in a Sunday post on X, arguing that the long-standing halving cycle has accelerated.

“I find it remarkable that some people are so confident the bottom will arrive in four months simply because of ‘cycles,’” said Mow, known for his $1 million Bitcoin forecast, his role in El Salvador’s Bitcoin strategy, and his broader push for sovereign Bitcoin adoption.

“Bitcoin hit an all-time high 37 days before the halving. Even if you believe in cycles, that suggests they’ve sped up. The bottom is in,” added Mow, former chief strategy officer at Blockstream.

According to Mow, Bitcoin’s record high ahead of the April 2024 halving signals that the conventional four-year cycle may no longer behave as it has in the past, weakening the reliability of historical comparisons.

He is not alone in this perspective. After Bitcoin surged to a pre-halving peak, some analysts argued that increasing institutional participation—especially following the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs—could be reshaping the cycle. Others, however, caution that the evidence remains inconclusive.

$55,000 Seen as a More Probable Floor

Not everyone shares Mow’s conviction. While some analysts believe Bitcoin is nearing a bottom, others expect further declines, using different models to support their views.

CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole recently suggested that a historically reliable contrarian indicator points to limited downside from current levels.

This signal is derived from Bitcoin’s 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages. The 50-week line—roughly a one-year trend—is on the verge of crossing below the 100-week line, forming a “bear cross.” In previous cycles, similar patterns have often aligned with market bottoms, leading some to interpret the setup as bullish.

Meanwhile, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, expects Bitcoin to bottom closer to $55,000, potentially between August and October. In contrast, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes holds a more bearish outlook, projecting a decline to around $40,000 within the next six months.

CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten also indicated that Bitcoin may need to fall another 15% or more before establishing a bottom, based on the long-term 200-week moving average.

“With Bitcoin testing its 200-week moving average, on-chain data suggests the $50,000 to $54,000 range could emerge as a key battleground,” he wrote.

Van Straten added that in every major bear market since 2011, Bitcoin has eventually traded below its realized price before forming a cycle low. “So far, that hasn’t happened in this cycle,” he noted.