Traders Eye Volatility as Bitcoin Sits Below $72K Ahead of $10B Expiry Event

Bitcoin’s slide into Friday’s quarterly options expiry has once again put the “max pain theory” in question, as prices trade well below the widely watched $72,000 level.

The move to around $61,700 comes ahead of roughly $10 billion in options expiring on Deribit at 8:00 ET Friday, reviving debate over whether spot prices tend to converge toward max pain ahead of settlement.

Max pain is the price level where options buyers—holders of calls and puts—suffer the greatest losses at expiry, while options sellers benefit the most.

The theory suggests that option writers may attempt to steer prices toward that level before expiry, creating a “pinning” effect around max pain. It gained traction after BTC appeared to drift toward those levels during multiple expiries in 2020–2021.

This week’s drop from about $67,000 to below $60,000, however, has pushed prices further away from the $72,000 max pain point, challenging that view.

The move also reflects long-standing skepticism from market participants such as Tony Stewart of Pelion Capital, who has argued that max pain has limited influence in crypto price action.

Recent expiries have also failed to show consistent evidence of price pinning, further weakening confidence in the framework.

“Friday’s expiry is something to watch with $10.2 billion rolling off Deribit and max pain at $72,000, well above spot,” said Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere. “Despite the narrative, recent expiries haven’t mechanically pinned prices the way people expect.”

Still, the event remains important, with Deribit calling it one of the year’s largest liquidity rollovers, a catalyst that can still drive volatility as traders adjust or roll positions.