Bitcoin Faces Potential Dip to $55K Ahead of Market Bottom, 10x Research Says

A firmer U.S. dollar and a more hawkish Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh are likely to keep pressure on crypto markets throughout the summer.

According to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen, bitcoin (BTC) may still have room to fall before the current bear cycle reaches its conclusion.

His outlook is driven largely by dollar strength, which has historically weighed on bitcoin. The Fed’s shift toward tighter monetary policy has reinforced this trend, with investors increasingly considering the possibility of further rate hikes instead of cuts—supporting the dollar while dampening risk assets.

However, Thielen does not expect the downturn to persist indefinitely.

He points to three key signals—global liquidity conditions, macroeconomic timing, and bitcoin’s seasonal trends—that suggest a potential bottom could form between late August and October.

A model tracking shifts in global liquidity, which previously flagged a buying opportunity in March and a sell signal in April, now highlights late August as the next critical turning point. Meanwhile, seasonal patterns indicate that September is often a weak month for bitcoin, typically followed by a rebound in October.

This timeframe also coincides with major macro events, including Federal Reserve meetings in September and October, U.S. midterm elections, and the Treasury’s quarterly refinancing update in early November.

Overall, Thielen expects bitcoin to slip below $60,000 and possibly reach $55,000 before establishing a cycle low.

His takeaway: remain patient in the near term and watch closely as late August approaches.