Volatility Risk Builds for Bitcoin Miners as Price Link Tightens — JPMorgan

Bitcoin miners are becoming increasingly price-sensitive as more of them operate near breakeven levels, JPMorgan said, making both hashrate and mining difficulty more responsive to bitcoin’s movements.

The bank noted that the mining network has shown a stronger link to BTC price action this year, with difficulty and hashrate adjusting more quickly as profitability tightens. Over the past six months, the beta of mining difficulty versus bitcoin’s price has climbed to 0.62, signaling faster reactions in network computing power to market shifts.

Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said mining economics have deteriorated, with bitcoin trading below estimated production costs for five consecutive months.

Hashrate, which measures the total computational power used to secure the Bitcoin network, is typically expressed in exahashes per second.

JPMorgan added that a larger portion of miners are now operating close to or below breakeven, making aggregate hashrate more vulnerable to swings in price.

The bank estimates about 20% of miners are currently unprofitable, based on CoinShares data, as industry conditions have worsened in 2026.

Financial strain has also pushed miners to liquidate holdings. Publicly listed mining companies sold more than 32,000 BTC in the first quarter, exceeding their total sales for all of 2025.

This has made network dynamics more reactive: when bitcoin falls below production costs, higher-cost miners shut down equipment, reducing hashrate and forcing downward adjustments in mining difficulty. JPMorgan highlighted the second week of June, when difficulty dropped 10%, marking the second such decline this year.

The bank expects this elevated sensitivity to continue as long as bitcoin trades below its estimated production cost of around $78,000. Bitcoin was last trading near $64,700.

At the same time, miners are increasingly diversifying into artificial intelligence and high-performance computing to stabilize revenue. AI hosting contracts are seen as offering more predictable and potentially higher-margin income compared with bitcoin mining, which has been pressured by rising competition and the 2024 halving.

However, JPMorgan cautioned that despite growing interest, large-scale execution and capital requirements remain significant hurdles for the sector.