This explains Bitcoin’s decline from the 200-day average level.

Bitcoin has slipped lower after failing to hold above its 200-day moving average, a key long-term trend indicator closely watched by traders. According to CryptoQuant, the rejection reflects a broader loss of momentum across the main forces that had been driving the recent recovery.

Bitcoin’s rebound from February lows initially raised expectations of a stronger bullish phase, but that move stalled at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near $82,000. After being rejected at that level, prices have drifted back toward the $77,500 area. The pattern echoes 2022, when a similarly sized relief rally also failed at the same level before the market resumed its broader decline.

CryptoQuant explains that the April and early May rally was supported by a mix of leveraged futures positioning, solid spot demand, and consistent inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. However, all three drivers have recently weakened at the same time, leaving the market more vulnerable to downside pressure.

The firm’s Bull Score Index has now fallen from 40 to 20, a level it describes as “extremely bearish.” Similar readings have previously coincided with weaker market conditions, including the February–March consolidation phase when Bitcoin traded between $60,000 and $66,000.

On-chain and market signals also point to fading demand. The Coinbase Bitcoin premium has stayed negative through both the rally and the correction, indicating that U.S. buyers are not paying higher prices on Coinbase compared with offshore exchanges—a sign of reduced domestic demand strength.

Institutional flows confirm the shift. Data from SoSoValue shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $979.7 million in net outflows in the week ending May 19, following roughly $1 billion in withdrawals the previous week. This reverses six straight weeks of inflows that had previously supported the uptrend.

Weakness is also visible in Asian markets. Korea’s “kimchi premium,” which tracks local demand for Bitcoin, has fallen below zero, while Hong Kong’s spot Bitcoin ETFs—managed by ChinaAMC, Bosera HashKey, and Harvest—have seen relatively light trading activity throughout May.

Looking ahead, CryptoQuant identifies $70,000, based on traders’ realized price, as the key support level. Historically, this zone has acted as an important market floor during prior cycles and may become a critical area to watch if downside pressure continues.