Bitcoin breaks under $77K as oil spike and bond yields trigger risk-off sentiment

Bitcoin fell below $77,000 during Asian hours on Monday as a combination of rising oil prices and surging Treasury yields weighed on global risk assets, while expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts continued to fade.

The broader macro environment has turned increasingly restrictive. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 5.13%, its highest level since 2007, with shorter-term yields also pushing to fresh 12-month highs. At the same time, prediction markets show traders overwhelmingly expect the Fed to stay on hold, with probabilities of no change at 98% for June and 94% for July.

That backdrop poses a clear challenge for bitcoin. Higher yields increase the appeal of fixed-income investments, reducing demand for non-yielding assets such as BTC. Elevated oil prices are also reinforcing inflation concerns, further tightening financial conditions and weighing on speculative markets.

Still, on-chain signals point to underlying resilience among longer-term holders.

According to Binance Research, nearly 60% of bitcoin’s supply has remained inactive for over a year, highlighting strong conviction among long-term investors. Exchange balances have also dropped to their lowest level in six years, suggesting limited immediate sell-side pressure.

However, stress is building among more recent entrants.

Short-term holder MVRV has fallen below 1, indicating that newer buyers are now holding bitcoin at a loss. This dynamic increases the market’s sensitivity to further downside, as these participants may be more likely to sell into weakness during periods of macro-driven volatility.

Markets are now looking ahead to key catalysts. Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday are expected to provide insight into broader risk sentiment, given its central role in the AI-driven equity rally. U.S. PPI data on Thursday will offer another gauge of whether inflation pressures are expanding beyond energy.

Meanwhile, developments around the CLARITY Act in Washington remain in focus as lawmakers continue efforts to define a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets.

For now, bitcoin sits between supportive supply dynamics and a tightening macro backdrop. While low exchange balances and dormant long-term supply may help limit sustained selling pressure, they offer little protection against sharp moves driven by rising yields or shifts in risk appetite.

The near-term outlook hinges on whether BTC can stabilize in a high-rate environment, as investors balance persistent inflation risks against the diminishing likelihood of near-term monetary easing.