Bitcoin pulled back after testing the $80,000 level, as rising oil prices and persistent bearish positioning weighed on sentiment. Despite the dip, signs of a potential breakout suggest the rally could accelerate if short positions are forced to unwind, even as altcoin sentiment and capital flows continue to weaken.
The broader crypto market slipped Thursday, with bitcoin (BTC) down about 0.7% since midnight UTC, recently trading near $77,600. The move follows a run-up that saw the asset reach its highest level since January before encountering resistance just below $80,000, որտեղ sellers stepped in.
Oil prices climbed roughly 1.5% overnight to $103 per barrel after reports that the U.S. seized three Iranian tankers in Asian waters, adding pressure to risk assets globally. U.S. stock futures also edged lower, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each declining around 0.5%.
Ether (ETH) underperformed bitcoin, falling 2.5% to around $2,320 after briefly approaching $2,500 over the weekend.
Even so, the broader market structure remains constructive. Bitcoin appears to have broken out of a two-month consolidation range between $63,000 and $75,000, where it had been trading since early February.
Derivatives data paints a nuanced picture. Bitcoin futures open interest has eased to around 775,000 BTC from nearly 800,000 BTC earlier in the week, but remains historically elevated. At the same time, negative perpetual funding rates indicate that leveraged traders are still skewed to the short side.
This unusual combination has led some analysts to describe the current move as a “most hated” rally—one that could gain momentum if bearish traders are squeezed out of their positions.
In altcoins, activity is more mixed. Dogecoin (DOGE) open interest has surged past 14 billion tokens, a level rarely seen since October, with funding rates turning positive and signaling growing demand for long positions. Meanwhile, declining open interest in assets like bitcoin cash (BCH), chainlink (LINK), and litecoin (LTC) suggests capital is rotating out of parts of the altcoin market.
Order flow data also reflects caution. The cumulative volume delta (CVD) shows sellers dominating across major altcoins such as XRP, solana (SOL), and ether, while only a handful of assets—including bitcoin, M, and CRO—are seeing net buying pressure. This divergence suggests the broader market has yet to fully confirm bitcoin’s upward move.
Volatility metrics remain subdued. Bitcoin and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indices are hovering near multi-month lows, indicating relatively calm conditions despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and disruptions in oil markets.
Options markets continue to reflect downside hedging demand, with puts priced higher than calls on Deribit. However, over the past day, traders have shown increased interest in bitcoin call options at strike levels between $80,000 and $85,000, pointing to expectations of further upside.
Sector performance highlights continued weakness in altcoins. CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX) led losses, dropping 2.7%, while the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index fell 1.1%. CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index slipped to 32/100, its lowest level in 10 days, underscoring a shift in investor preference toward bitcoin.
A few outliers bucked the trend. Spark (SPK) surged more than 70% following its listing on Upbit, South Korea’s largest crypto exchange. Privacy coin monero (XMR) also outperformed, rising 3.3%, while peers dash (DASH) and zcash (ZEC) declined.
Meanwhile, DeFi tokens remained under pressure, with morpho and aave falling 4.6% and 2.8%, respectively, as negative sentiment lingers in the sector after the recent $290 million exploit involving KelpDAO.
Share this content:
