Is Bitcoin Topping Out — or Just Gearing Up for the Next Surge?

Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Is the Bull Market Over or Just Catching Its Breath?
October 28, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) stands at a crucial inflection point in its current market cycle. While historical patterns hint that the top might be in, multiple on-chain and macro factors suggest there could still be significant upside left.

The central debate among traders and analysts is clear: Has Bitcoin already peaked at $126,500 on October 6, or is the next leg of the rally yet to come?

Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle, which cuts new supply by 50%, has traditionally triggered major bull runs roughly 12–18 months later. Yet despite being within that period, the market has not witnessed the usual “blow-off top” — the parabolic surge and euphoric sentiment that typically mark a cycle’s end.

As Bitcoin’s market matures and its inflation rate declines, the halving’s impact naturally diminishes. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a rhythm of three years of gains followed by one corrective year. With 2023 and 2024 closing strong and 2025 likely to follow, some analysts expect 2026 could bring the next downturn.

Still, several signs point to more potential upside. Sentiment remains cautious, volatility sits at multi-year lows, and on-chain data show no evidence of speculative mania — all conditions inconsistent with a cycle peak.

Large holders have been realizing profits near $100,000, while older coins have been moving amid low transaction fees and emerging quantum security concerns. However, these waves of selling often lead to seller exhaustion, a condition that historically precedes renewed bullish momentum.

Unlike Bitcoin’s previous tops in 2017 and 2021, which coincided with Federal Reserve tightening, this cycle is developing amid easing monetary policy. The Fed has already cut rates by over 100 basis points since September 2024, with another 25-basis-point cut expected this week, and projections suggest rates could fall to 3.25–3.50% by early 2026. The central bank is also ending quantitative tightening, a shift that could add liquidity and sustain risk-on sentiment across markets.

A defining feature of this cycle is the introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched in early 2024. These products have provided a steady demand base, keeping pullbacks shallow — seldom exceeding 20% — and stabilizing the market through consistent institutional inflows. The addition of ETF options has further reduced volatility, allowing funds to hedge exposure and temper sharp moves in both directions.

Together, these developments have transformed Bitcoin into a more mature, liquid macro asset, suggesting that the extreme boom-and-bust cycles of the past may be giving way to more sustained, measured growth phases.

Meanwhile, gold, Bitcoin’s long-standing macro counterpart, has declined about 10% from its record high, while Bitcoin has gained over 10% since early October — a pattern reminiscent of 2020, when gold’s peak preceded Bitcoin’s historic breakout.

Despite Bitcoin’s new all-time highs in dollar terms, it remains below previous records relative to key benchmarks. Against the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, it sits at 42 versus 55 in 2021, and against gold, around 40 ounces per BTC — roughly the same level as in the prior cycle.

Macro uncertainty persists amid U.S.–China tariff tensions, a federal government shutdown, and soft manufacturing data, though Trump’s reshoring agenda and surging AI investment could fuel economic resilience.

Even with these tailwinds, market sentiment remains far from euphoric. Data from Coinglass shows 16 days of “fear” and only six neutral days in the past month, while volatility remains at historic lows — an unusual setup for a cycle top.

In short, while some argue Bitcoin’s bull run has already peaked, the evidence tells a more nuanced story: with low volatility, cautious sentiment, and improving liquidity, Bitcoin may still have more room to climb before this cycle truly ends.