Government Shutdown Poses Question on Cardano ETF Approval This Year

Cardano ETF Faces Potential Delays Amid U.S. Government Shutdown

The long-awaited Cardano (ADA, $0.7830) ETF may miss its 2025 approval timeline as the SEC operates with minimal staff during the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Crypto ETF reviews are effectively on hold, potentially pushing decisions into 2026.

Although the SEC recently introduced fast-track rules for altcoin ETFs, including ADA, the shutdown has stalled filings. Polymarket traders currently assign a 90% probability to year-end approval, but a 36% chance of a month-long shutdown increases the likelihood of delays.

Under the SEC’s contingency plan, roughly 390 of 4,200 employees remain on duty, focusing on emergencies and market monitoring rather than reviewing new filings. Applications can still be submitted via EDGAR, but no staff are available to process them.

Even if operations resume in late October, the SEC would have only about eight working weeks before the holiday slowdown to clear a backlog that includes Cardano and 89 other crypto ETF applications.

While ADA’s ETF remains a high-priority filing, the ongoing government shutdown introduces significant uncertainty over the approval timeline.