Bitcoin’s Odds of Hitting $75K Soar as Trump’s Tariffs Trigger Trade War, According to Derive’s Onchain Options Market

The probability of Bitcoin (BTC) dropping to $75,000 by March 28 has surged to 22%, doubling from last week’s 10% chance, as concerns over an escalating trade war between the U.S. and its major trading partners raise fears of rising inflation. This shift in probability is based on data from Derive.xyz, a platform tracking Bitcoin’s on-chain options market.

The renewed tariff conflict, with 25% tariffs imposed on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% on Chinese goods, has created uncertainties that could disrupt global economic stability. As inflationary pressures mount, the ability of central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, to lower interest rates is becoming more constrained, dampening investor sentiment in cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin has already seen a decline of 11% over the past four days, falling to $93,700. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, dropped below $2,200—its lowest point since August. This decline is fueling expectations that Bitcoin may be poised for a further fall to the $75,000 level, potentially completing a double top reversal pattern.

Despite this short-term downside, some analysts remain positive about the long-term outlook. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX and current CIO of Maelstrom, recently predicted that Bitcoin would first dip to $75,000 before beginning a more substantial bull run.

Derive is also hopeful about the broader crypto market, citing several active spot ETF filings for cryptocurrencies such as DOGE, SOL, XRP, and LTC by prominent firms like Bitwise and Grayscale. If the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves these filings, it could signal greater legitimacy for the crypto sector and attract more institutional capital, which may help lift prices.

Bitwise’s Andre Dragosch believes that the Federal Reserve will eventually intervene to support financial markets. “Eventually, the Fed will need to restart quantitative easing to slow the rise of the dollar and alleviate tightening financial conditions, helping prevent a further deceleration in global growth,” he said.