This signal has traditionally marked short-term Bitcoin highs, yet the current scenario may diverge.

Short-term Bitcoin holders (STHs) have increased their holdings by approximately 450,000 BTC since July, bringing their total to around 2.6 million BTC, according to Glassnode. STHs, defined as investors who bought Bitcoin within the last 155 days, remain below previous peaks, suggesting cautious market sentiment.

This marks the third notable STH accumulation cycle since early 2024, a trend historically associated with local price tops. Previous surges occurred in April 2024 following the $73K high and in January 2025 around the $110K all-time high. The latest accumulation follows Bitcoin’s $126K record.

Each cycle has involved fewer STHs, with their share of total supply declining from 22% to 18%, indicating a gradual reduction in speculative activity. Earlier this year, STHs held up to 2.8 million BTC, which dropped to 2.1 million BTC as Bitcoin retraced to $76K, highlighting their impact on past market corrections.

Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs) have modestly reduced positions, selling around 250,000 BTC since July, leaving them with approximately 14.5 million BTC.

As Bitcoin enters a historically strong quarter, analysts anticipate STH holdings could climb past 3 million BTC, potentially influencing near-term market trends.