BTC May Fall Toward $118K Amid Dollar and Bond Pressure, But MOVE Index Supports Bullish Momentum

Bitcoin (BTC) continues its upward momentum, maintaining support above a critical trendline despite a brief pause over the past 24 hours. The near-vertical trendline from lows just under $110,000 was tested earlier today and held, reinforcing the strength of the ongoing rally.

Analysts suggest traders who missed the initial surge could use call spreads to capture potential gains in a more risk-efficient manner.

BTC Outlook
A clean breakout above the upper boundary of the expanding triangle on the daily chart could clear the path toward $135,000–$140,000, a level that served as resistance earlier this week. Conversely, a break below the hourly ascending trendline may trigger a corrective phase, with the first support near $118,000.

Traditional Markets: Mixed Signals
Macro indicators present a nuanced picture for crypto investors:

• Bullish signals: The MOVE index, which tracks expected volatility in Treasury notes, fell below 70 on Monday—the lowest since December 2021—indicating easier conditions for risk assets.
• Cautionary signs: The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is flirting with a bullish double-bottom pattern, while the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed 16 basis points to 4.16%, partially offsetting the September 25-basis-point Fed rate cut.

Goldman Sachs also warned that shocks in Japan’s bond market, fueled by the new Prime Minister’s Abenomics-style policies, could spill over into U.S. Treasuries and other global bonds, adding uncertainty for risk assets.

Traders should monitor these indicators closely, as sustained strength in the dollar or yields could put pressure on Bitcoin’s rally.

Ethereum Signals Further Upside
Ether (ETH) has gained 4%, forming a bull flag breakout on the weekly chart. This pattern typically signals a continuation of the prior uptrend. A move above $5,000 could mark the next leg higher, while a weekly decline would suggest bearish pressure is gaining momentum.