Bitcoin Eyeing $135K as Standard Chartered Forecasts Strong Momentum

Bitcoin Could Surge Toward $200K as ETF Flows and Macro Risks Fuel Rally

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed roughly 13% this week, reaching $124,951 on Friday and approaching its previous all-time high of $124,500. Analysts at Standard Chartered see the potential for a swift move to $135,000, with year-end projections targeting $200,000.

ETF Rotation Provides Tailwind
According to Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, a shift of ETF investor capital from gold to Bitcoin could accelerate BTC’s rally. While gold ETFs recently outperformed, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are poised to catch up. Of the $58 billion in net BTC ETF inflows, $23 billion has occurred in 2025 alone, including over $2.25 billion this week (excluding Friday). Kendrick anticipates an additional $20 billion of ETF capital by year-end, supporting the $200,000 price target.

Macro Risks Supporting BTC
Kendrick also highlighted the impact of the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which is having a larger market effect than in past shutdowns. Unlike the 2018–2019 episode, Bitcoin is now closely correlated with U.S. government risk, measured through Treasury term premiums, suggesting that current uncertainty acts as a bullish catalyst.

Prediction market data from Polymarket indicates a greater than 60% probability that the shutdown lasts 10–29 days, a period during which Kendrick expects Bitcoin’s upward momentum to continue.

Technical Outlook
With BTC nearing prior all-time highs, a short-term target of $135,000 is achievable. Combined with inflows from ETFs and macro-driven market dynamics, Bitcoin’s momentum could carry it toward the $200,000 year-end forecast.