Bitcoin on Track for $200K? This Indicator Warns of Explosive Upside

Bitcoin Demand Strengthens, Poised for Potential $200K Surge in Q4 – 3/10/2025

Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics show growing demand since July, suggesting a possible late-year rally toward $200,000.

CryptoQuant data indicates that apparent demand is rising at roughly 62,000 BTC per month, echoing trends from Q4 2020, 2021, and 2024, all periods that preceded sharp price increases. Historically, sustained demand growth has provided the foundation for such rallies.

Much of the accumulation is driven by whales and ETFs. Large-holder balances are increasing at an annualized rate of 331,000 BTC, surpassing 255,000 BTC in Q4 2024 and 238,000 BTC in Q4 2020, and contrasting sharply with the 197,000 BTC contraction seen in 2021. ETFs also remain a significant factor, having added 213,000 BTC in Q4 2024—a 71% increase in holdings—with potential for further allocations toward year-end.

On-chain valuation highlights a key threshold: the Trader’s Realized Price at $116,000. A decisive move above this level would signal a shift into the “BULL” phase of the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, opening a potential Q4 valuation band of $160,000 to $200,000. This indicator tracks Bitcoin’s current price against the average cost basis of different investor groups, with prices above realized levels suggesting bullish momentum and rising profits, and prices below signaling bearish pressure and unrealized losses.

Market conditions heading into October mirror those of last year. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has stayed between 40 and 50, historically marking the edge of bullish territory. In Q4 2024, the index broke above 50 at the start of the quarter, preceding Bitcoin’s surge from around $70,000 to $100,000.

With strong accumulation metrics and improving momentum, traders are closely watching for a repeat of last year’s late-year rally.