BTC Falls Behind Major Assets in Q3 — Key Technical Level May Determine Next Move

Bitcoin Under Pressure as Options Expiry and Technical Levels Weigh on Price – 27/9/2025

Bitcoin (BTC) closed the week at $111,480.33, marking a 5% decline in what is historically the cryptocurrency’s third-weakest week of the year. Q3 ended up about 1%, while September remained relatively flat.

Several factors contributed to the pullback. On Friday, more than $17 billion in BTC options expired, with the “max pain” strike price at $110,000 — the level where option holders face the greatest losses — acting as a gravitational center for the spot price.

A key technical metric is the short-term holder cost basis at $110,775, representing the average acquisition price for coins moved in the past six months. BTC tested this level in August, and in bull markets, it typically revisits this line multiple times. This year, the only major break below occurred during April’s tariff-driven sell-off, when BTC dropped to around $74,500.

Analyst Caleb Franzen noted BTC has slipped below its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), with the 200-day EMA at $106,186. To maintain the broader uptrend of higher highs and higher lows, BTC must hold above prior support near $107,252 from Sept. 1.

Macro Backdrop
The U.S. economy grew at an annualized 3.8% in Q2, surpassing estimates, while initial jobless claims fell to 218,000 — the lowest since mid-July. Core PCE inflation rose 0.2% in August.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields bounced off 4% support to about 4.2%, while the dollar index (DXY) hovers near long-term support at 98. Metals remain strong, with silver approaching $45, near highs last seen in 1980 and 2011. U.S. equities are close to record levels, but BTC remains over 10% below its peak.

Bitcoin-Exposed Equities
Bitcoin treasury firms continue to face steep multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) compression. MicroStrategy (MSTR) is barely positive year-to-date, dipping below $300 at one point. Its ratio against BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) sits at 4.8 — the lowest since October 2024 — showing significant underperformance relative to BTC over the past year.

MSTR’s enterprise mNAV stands at 1.44, accounting for all shares, debt, and perpetual preferred stock minus cash. Three of four perpetual preferred stocks — STRK, STRC, and STRF — maintain positive lifetime returns, supporting ongoing BTC purchases by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor.

Lower Bitcoin volatility presents another challenge. Implied volatility has dropped below 40, reducing speculative interest. Annualized standard deviation of BTC’s daily log returns has fallen from 89% over the past year to 49% in the last 30 days, limiting trading opportunities.

Metaplanet (3350), the fifth-largest BTC treasury company, holds 25,555 BTC and has roughly $500 million left to deploy from its international offering. Despite this, its share price sits at 517 yen ($3.45), more than 70% below its all-time high. Metaplanet’s mNAV has dropped to 1.12 from 8.44 in June, with a market capitalization of $3.94 billion versus BTC NAV of $2.9 billion, and an average acquisition cost of $106,065 per coin.