Week 38 Brings a Setback for Bitcoin, Its Third-Lowest Average Weekly Return

Bitcoin Faces Seasonal Pressure as Gold and AI Stocks Gain Momentum

Bitcoin is under pressure in the 38th week of 2025, historically one of its weakest periods. Coinglass data shows Week 38 has averaged a -2.25% return, making it the third-worst week of the year behind Weeks 28 and 14. This week, BTC has dropped nearly 2%, trading around $113,000. September’s options expiry points to a max pain level near $110,000, suggesting potential further downside.

Market indicators reflect cooling sentiment. Perpetual funding rates for BTC, representing the cost of holding leveraged positions, have fallen to 4%, one of the lowest levels in a month. Implied volatility is also subdued at 37, signaling muted expectations for future price swings.

Despite this short-term pullback, bitcoin remains up 4% in September and 6% for the quarter. With about 14 weeks remaining in 2025 — historically positive for BTC — the market may be consolidating ahead of potential volatility.

Meanwhile, gold continues to attract investor attention, climbing 1% on Tuesday and posting year-to-date gains exceeding 42%. Gains in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing stocks, such as IREN, may also be drawing capital away from crypto, contributing to short-term weakness in bitcoin sentiment.