Morning Asia Markets: Bitcoin Clings to $115K — Fragile or Back on Track?

Bitcoin Holds $115K as Analysts Clash Over Market Momentum

Bitcoin (BTC) traded slightly above $115,000 in Asia Tuesday morning, retreating after an early-week rally. The modest pullback comes amid strong inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and continued optimism that the Federal Reserve may cut rates next week, leaving market participants questioning whether the recovery is on firm footing or built on fragile momentum after last week’s CPI-driven volatility.

Research perspectives diverge. Glassnode’s weekly report highlights caution. Despite ETF inflows jumping nearly 200% last week and futures open interest rising, the underlying spot market shows signs of weakness.

Glassnode notes that buying conviction remains shallow, funding rates have softened, and profit-taking is increasing, with over 92% of BTC supply currently in profit. Options traders have also scaled back downside hedges, narrowing volatility spreads—conditions that could leave the market exposed if risk returns. Essentially, ETFs and futures are sustaining the rally, but without stronger spot-market flows, BTC remains vulnerable.

Conversely, QCP takes a bullish stance. The Singapore-based desk sees crypto “back on track” after CPI data confirmed tariff-driven inflation without major surprises. They highlight five consecutive days of substantial BTC ETF inflows, ETH’s largest inflows in two weeks, and strength in XRP and SOL despite ETF delays.

Traders interpret regulatory postponements as procedural rather than restrictive. With the Altcoin Season Index at a 90-day high, QCP views BTC consolidation above $115K as a springboard for rotation into higher-beta assets.

The current range near $115K–$116K has become a market battleground. Glassnode warns of fragile optimism, while QCP points to building momentum. The outcome may hinge on whether ETF inflows continue to offset profit-taking in the weeks ahead.

Market Snapshot

• BTC: Consolidating near $115K as traders position ahead of expected Fed policy; spot ETF demand is providing support.
• ETH: Trading around $4,500, boosted by institutional inflows, exchange outflows, and favorable technical signals.
• Gold: Remaining near record highs, supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of Fed rate cuts, but tempered by profit-taking and a stronger dollar.
• Nikkei 225: Surpassed 45,000 Monday, leading Asia-Pacific gains amid positive U.S.-China trade developments and TikTok divestment plans.
• S&P 500: Rose 0.5% to close above 6,600 Monday, buoyed by trade optimism and anticipation of the Fed meeting.