Bernstein Highlights Circle’s USDC as a Market Leader on the Rise

Circle’s USDC stablecoin continues to outpace expectations, with supply climbing to $72.5 billion, about 25% ahead of Bernstein’s 2025 forecast. The brokerage had projected year-end issuance of $74 billion.

The milestone comes as decentralized exchange Hyperliquid readies its own stablecoin, a move aimed at reducing dependence on USDC for trading and collateral. Even with the competitive threat, USDC’s market share rose to 30% in Q2 from 28%, according to Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani, reinforcing the token’s growing foothold in the stablecoin sector.

Stablecoins—tokens pegged to the U.S. dollar and other assets—are a cornerstone of digital finance, powering payments, trading, and cross-border settlements. Roughly $5.5 billion in USDC, or 7.5% of supply, is currently locked as collateral on Hyperliquid. Analysts caution that while rival entrants may emerge, achieving the liquidity depth required for derivatives and high-frequency trading remains a significant hurdle.

Bernstein also pushed back on concerns over Circle’s exposure to potential U.S. interest rate cuts. With USDC supply expanding alongside broader crypto adoption, the firm argued Circle is well positioned to benefit from higher digital asset activity. Lower rates, in turn, could stoke risk-on appetite and drive additional demand for stablecoins and yield-based strategies.

Bernstein reiterated its outperform rating on Circle with a $230 price target. Shares traded 1.2% higher at $116 at the time of publication.