Bitcoin Investors Alerted to Possible Jump in Important Bond Market Gauge

Bitcoin Faces Headwinds as MOVE Index Signals Rising Bond Market Volatility

Bitcoin (BTC) momentum is showing signs of strain amid long-term holder selling and slowing ETF inflows. Adding to the challenge, the MOVE index—a gauge of U.S. Treasury volatility—is climbing sharply.

Developed by former Merrill Lynch MD Harley Bassman, the MOVE index measures implied volatility across one-month options on 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year Treasury notes. Over the past three days, it has jumped from 77 to 89, marking its steepest increase since April, when global market uncertainty pushed BTC down to $75,000.

Rising Treasury volatility often tightens liquidity, increases borrowing costs, and triggers a “flight to safety,” with investors favoring short-term bonds over risk assets. Historically, BTC rallies have coincided with declining MOVE levels, making the current spike a potential warning sign.

If the index continues its ascent, bitcoin could face further downside, potentially deepening the ongoing pullback.