Traders on Polymarket See Slim Odds of Trump Toppling Powell or Cook in 2025

Trump Targets Fed Governor, But Markets Bet Powell Stays Put

Donald Trump’s effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook has revived tensions over the central bank’s independence, but traders doubt he can push much further.

On Polymarket, bettors see just a 10% chance Fed Chair Jerome Powell is ousted in 2025, pointing to expectations that he remains in place through his May 2026 term. Cook’s odds look more fragile, with a 27% chance of removal priced in after Trump accused her of mortgage fraud. She has refused to resign, calling the charges irrelevant to her duties.

The move fits a historical pattern of presidents pressuring the Fed. Truman, Johnson, and Nixon all intervened when policy clashed with political goals — a record some economists say proves independence is limited.

Should Powell be forced out, markets may welcome a more dovish Fed that cuts rates faster, weakens the dollar, and supports bitcoin. For crypto advocates, it would reinforce arguments that fiat is inherently political while BTC remains neutral.

Bitcoin barely reacted to the Cook news, rising 0.3% before slipping to a 2.6% daily loss. The CoinDesk 20 index slid 5.3% to under 4,000 by Hong Kong trading.