Benchmark Maintains Bullish View on Semler Scientific, Sees 3x Upside Ahead

Benchmark Sees Semler Scientific Deeply Undervalued, With Bitcoin Strategy Offering 3x Upside

Semler Scientific (NASDAQ: SMLR) is trading just slightly above the value of its bitcoin holdings, with a market net asset value (mNAV) of 1.04 — a sign, according to Benchmark, that investors are overlooking significant upside potential.

Following the company’s Q2 earnings, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer reiterated a Buy rating and a $101 price target, nearly three times the current trading level of around $35. He argued that markets are failing to price in Semler’s ability to responsibly expand its bitcoin position using strategic leverage.

“Investors are giving virtually no credit for the company’s disciplined approach to increasing its BTC holdings,” Palmer wrote. He emphasized the opportunity for Semler to scale its treasury via what he called “intelligent leverage,” without the dilution seen in other bitcoin-focused firms.

Unlike many corporate bitcoin holders that lean on aggressive stock issuance, Semler is adopting a measured growth model. Joe Burnett, the company’s newly appointed Director of Bitcoin Strategy, has outlined a capital plan built on operating cash flow, low-interest convertible debt, and selective at-the-money (ATM) equity offerings, aimed at preserving shareholder value.

As of July 31, Semler held 5,021 BTC, acquired at a cost basis of $475.8 million and now valued at $586.2 million, producing an unrealized gain of $110.4 million and a 31.3% BTC yield year-to-date.

The firm also holds $100 million in 4.25% convertible notes due 2030 and has additional capacity to issue long-term, bitcoin-backed debt to enhance returns.

Semler has set bold treasury goals, targeting 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025, 42,000 BTC by 2026, and 105,000 BTC by 2027 — signaling its intent to become a top-tier corporate BTC holder.

Benchmark’s $101 price target is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation that includes both the bitcoin treasury and Semler’s healthcare business, notably its growing CardioVanta division.

With shares currently trading close to BTC net asset value, Palmer sees a significant valuation gap. “We believe this disconnect will close as the company executes on its capital strategy,” he noted.