Asia Opening Note: BTC Edges Higher to $115K with ETF Inflows Returning, Though Risk Hedging Persists -

Bitcoin Rebounds Toward $115K as ETF Inflows Resume, But Market Caution Persists

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of recovery in early Asia trading, climbing back above $115,000 after last week’s sharp macro-driven decline. The rebound follows heavy losses on Friday that wiped out over $1 billion in leveraged long positions and briefly pushed BTC to $113,000.

The modest recovery comes alongside encouraging signs in institutional flows. Bitwise reported $18.74 million in net ETF inflows, potentially marking a shift after one of the worst outflow days on record last week.

Friday’s selloff was the third consecutive Friday decline for BTC and was triggered by a combination of weak U.S. jobs data and new tariffs imposed by Washington, sparking a broad risk-off sentiment across equities and crypto. Altcoins were hit especially hard, with Solana (SOL) shedding nearly 20% on the week and Ethereum (ETH) down nearly 10%.

Despite the volatility, some market participants remain constructive. In a Monday note, QCP Capital argued that the broader bullish structure remains intact, citing Bitcoin’s highest-ever monthly close in July. The firm views the latest decline as a leverage flush rather than a change in long-term trend, likening it to previous post-rally corrections that paved the way for renewed accumulation.

Still, sentiment remains fragile. On Polymarket, traders are assigning a 49% probability that BTC falls below $100,000 by the end of 2025—up 2 percentage points from the day before—highlighting lingering concerns over deeper downside risks.

This hedging behavior reflects a market that, while fundamentally supported by themes like regulatory clarity, stablecoin growth, and tokenization, remains on edge.

The next key signal may arrive during Asia’s trading hours as updated ETF flow data from U.S. issuers is expected by mid-day Hong Kong time. If inflows continue and implied volatility begins to compress, it could encourage more investors to adopt a buy-the-dip stance and regain confidence in the market’s upward trajectory.

Market Movers:

BTC: Trading above $115,000, showing early signs of stabilization.
ETH: Holding steady around $3,700; Polymarket traders increasingly confident of a break above $4,000 in August.
Gold: Extended gains for a third session, hitting a two-week high as soft U.S. data raises the likelihood of a September Fed rate cut (now priced at 86% probability by CME futures).
Nikkei 225: Rose 0.54% at open after President Trump announced plans to increase tariffs on Indian exports.
S&P 500: Rebounded 1.47% to 6,329.94 on Monday, snapping a four-day losing streak with its strongest session since May.