BTC Could Dip Below $100K, But XRP’s Strength Signals a Possible Reversal
Bitcoin Struggles at Key Resistance as Bearish Signals Mount; Altcoins Show Mixed Technicals
Bitcoin’s rally appears to be running out of steam, with both long-term and short-term technical charts flashing warning signs of a potential deeper pullback. Meanwhile, XRP and Ether face continued resistance, while Solana finds tentative support near key Fibonacci levels.
Bitcoin (BTC): Macro Rejection Signals Risk of Drop to $100K
Bitcoin’s multi-month uptrend has hit significant resistance near the long-term trendline drawn from the 2017 and 2021 cycle tops. The failed breakout attempt has been met with declining momentum and bearish signals.
- The weekly MACD histogram has declined notably from December 2024 levels, despite remaining in positive territory.
- The 14-week RSI has broken below its uptrend line and is forming lower highs — a classic signal of fading bullish strength.
On the daily chart, the three-line break formation has printed three red candles, confirming a short-term trend reversal.
Unless BTC can decisively break above $122,056, the path of least resistance appears lower, with a potential move toward $100,000 in play if support at $111,965 is breached.
Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: $120,000, $122,056, $123,181
- Support: $111,965, $112,301 (50-day SMA), $100,000
XRP: Facing Resistance Despite Downtrend Break Attempt
XRP is testing a downtrend line that has defined its recent correction. However, strong resistance around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement continues to cap the rally, and moving averages across timeframes reinforce a bearish bias.
- The 5- and 10-day SMAs continue sloping downward.
- The 50-, 100-, and 200-hour SMAs remain bearishly stacked.
While a close above $3.00 could shift near-term momentum, bulls need to reclaim $3.33 to change the broader trend structure.
Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: $3.33, $3.65, $4.00
- Support: $2.72, $2.65, $2.58
Ethereum (ETH): Bearish Weekly Candle Puts Bulls on Alert
Ether posted a nearly 10% loss last week, creating a bearish outside week candle — a strong indicator that sellers are regaining control.
- On the daily chart, the 5- and 10-day SMAs have formed a bearish crossover.
- The three-line break chart confirms the downshift in momentum, printing back-to-back red bars.
While Ether has bounced modestly since Sunday, the setup points toward continued weakness unless buyers reclaim the $4,000 level.
Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: $3,941, $4,000, $4,100
- Support: $3,355, $3,000, $2,879
Solana (SOL): Golden Cross on Horizon as Bulls Defend Key Support
Solana is showing signs of resilience, bouncing off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its recent rally — a key area that typically serves as strong support in uptrends.
More notably, the 50-day and 200-day SMAs are approaching a golden cross, a lagging but powerful signal that could confirm a longer-term bullish shift.
However, in the short term, 5- and 10-day SMAs are still pointing lower, indicating cautious sentiment among traders.
Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: $175, $187, $200
- Support: $156, $145, $126
Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s failure to break above long-term resistance and the emergence of bearish technical patterns suggest a deeper correction could be underway. A move below $112K could open the door for a test of $100K support.
Altcoins remain sensitive to BTC’s next move. XRP and ETH face headwinds, while Solana’s structure is comparatively stronger — but still dependent on broader market stability.
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