$140K Target Remains for Bitcoin in 2025, Yet 2026 Could Be a Bear Market Year: Technical Strategist

Elliott Wave Analyst Sees Bitcoin Peaking at $140K in 2025, Warns of 2026 Bear Market

Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $140,000 before the end of the year but may face a significant downturn in 2026, according to Elliott Wave strategist John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at crypto financial services firm Ledn.

Despite a recent 4% weekly decline, with BTC briefly dipping below $112,000, Glover maintains that the market remains on track to complete a long-term bullish pattern — part of the widely followed Elliott Wave Theory — before entering a new bearish phase.

Technical Path to $140K

Glover says Bitcoin is now in the third wave (wave iii) of a larger five-wave impulse sequence that started in 2023. He projects a near-term rally toward $130,000, followed by a short-term correction in September down to roughly $110,000, before a final push higher to the $135,000–$140,000 range to close out wave v of the cycle.

“BTC remains in the expected trajectory, with the broader five-wave structure likely to complete by year-end,” Glover told CoinDesk. “We’re targeting $140,000 as a final peak for this cycle.”

The recent decline, he notes, is consistent with a corrective wave and comes after profit-taking by long-term holders around the $120,000 level, alongside weakness in crypto-linked equities like Coinbase and MicroStrategy.

2026: Trouble Ahead?

Once BTC hits the $140,000 mark, Glover expects renewed market hype, with some forecasting targets of $250,000 or even $500,000. However, he disagrees with those views.

“I don’t buy into the idea of another leg higher in 2026,” he said. “Once the current wave structure completes, I expect a bear market to take hold next year.”

This view stands in contrast to the popular belief that institutional adoption — particularly via spot Bitcoin ETFs — has disrupted Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle of boom and bust. Glover argues the long-term patterns remain intact despite the influx of new market participants.

What Is Elliott Wave Theory?

Originally developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, the Elliott Wave Theory posits that financial markets move in repeating cycles driven by collective investor psychology. A typical pattern includes five waves in the direction of the main trend, followed by a three-wave corrective phase. These fractal patterns can help forecast future price action across different timeframes.

Based on this framework, Glover believes Bitcoin is approaching the end of its final impulse wave, suggesting that the long-term top could be closer than many expect.