Q2 Earnings Preview: Coinbase’s Trading Drop Clashes With Strength in Subscription and Services

Coinbase Q2 Earnings: Wall Street Divided as Trading Slumps, But Services and Regulation Offer Bright Spots

Coinbase (COIN) is set to report its second-quarter results after markets close Thursday, and analysts remain split over the stock’s near-term trajectory. While trading volumes continue to decline, growing revenue from subscription and services — coupled with regulatory tailwinds — is keeping investor sentiment mixed.

Headline Estimates: Modest Growth, Diverging Signals

According to FactSet, Coinbase is expected to post Q2 revenue of $1.59 billion, up from $1.45 billion a year earlier. Earnings per share are projected at $1.25. Beneath the surface, however, the focus is on a key divide: weaker spot trading volumes versus rising income from interest, blockchain activity, and subscription services.

Barclays Flags Retail Weakness

Barclays analyst Benjamin Buddish remains cautious, maintaining a neutral rating while warning of softer-than-expected transaction revenue. He estimates Q2 trading revenue at $741 million — below the $813.8 million consensus — citing a 43% quarter-over-quarter drop in retail volumes based on Robinhood data and overall exchange activity.

Despite this, Buddish recently raised his price target from $202 to $359, citing market multiple expansion and Coinbase’s sharp stock rally. He believes legislative developments such as the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts could provide longer-term support, even as near-term trading headwinds persist.

Citi Highlights Structural Upside

Citi’s Peter Christiansen is more optimistic. He increased his price target to $505 from $270 and reaffirmed a buy rating, citing Coinbase’s S&P 500 inclusion and progress on crypto regulation. He views the GENIUS Act on stablecoins and the CLARITY Act as foundational to the industry’s next phase.

Christiansen also sees growth potential in Coinbase’s product roadmap, including tokenized equities, enhanced wallets, and a crypto credit card partnership with American Express. While acknowledging weak Q2 volumes, he points to strong prospects for USDC monetization, Base network activity, and subscription growth via Coinbase One.

JPMorgan: Neutral With Cautious Optimism

JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington maintains a neutral rating and a $404 year-end price target. His model includes Coinbase’s stake in Circle’s stablecoin business, estimated at $1.4 billion, but excludes it from adjusted EBITDA. He also factors in $50 million in expenses from a Q2 cybersecurity incident.

Worthington sees Coinbase as a long-term beneficiary of the crypto economy but emphasizes execution risk, particularly around tokenization and payment infrastructure. He believes upside remains if ETF inflows and regulatory clarity continue but warns of downside from potential compliance burdens and fading investor enthusiasm.

Subscription & Services a Bright Spot

Coinbase previously guided Q2 subscription and services revenue between $600 million and $680 million. Barclays projects the figure may exceed guidance, reaching $703 million, thanks to higher BTC prices and larger USDC balances.

Christiansen expects continued gains in this segment, supported by new financial products and feature rollouts, even as staking slows.

Trading Volume Still Lagging Market Recovery

Despite a crypto market rebound in 2025, Coinbase’s trading activity hasn’t kept pace. According to The Block, spot volumes on the platform fell roughly 40% quarter-over-quarter to $232 billion in Q2. Futures trading held up slightly better but weakened by June.

COIN closed at $380 on Wednesday, up 2% on the day and 47% year-to-date. Investors now await Thursday’s report for further clarity on whether services and regulation can counterbalance the trading slowdown.