XRP, DOGE, SOL Lead Crypto Decline — A Drop in BTC Dominance Could Rekindle Altcoin Season

Bitcoin Dominance Dips, But Altcoin Season Still Lacks Clear Confirmation

A recent breakdown in Bitcoin’s market dominance is fueling speculation that altcoin season may be near — but analysts caution that the trend has yet to fully confirm.

Bitcoin (BTC) has held relatively steady, down just over 3% from its midweek high of $120,000, while major altcoins have come under heavier selling pressure. XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), and Solana (SOL) posted some of the steepest losses among large-cap tokens on Friday, each falling around 5% in 24 hours. From their weekly highs, XRP and DOGE are now down roughly 18%, while SOL has dropped 12%, according to CoinDesk data.

Broader altcoin weakness was reflected in the CoinDesk 80 Index — which tracks mid-cap assets outside the top 20 — sliding 10% from its weekly peak. Ethereum’s ether (ETH) remained more resilient, down just 4%, supported by steady buying from treasury-focused crypto firms.

Leverage Spike Behind Market Pullback

According to Coinbase’s head of research, David Duong, the sudden decline in altcoins is largely a result of overextended leverage in the derivatives market. In a Friday note, he pointed to the Altcoin Open-Interest Dominance ratio — a metric comparing the value of altcoin futures positions to Bitcoin’s — which surged to 1.6, a historically high level that has preceded several sharp corrections.

“A reduction in this ratio would suggest a healthier market structure,” Duong said. “Otherwise, further shakeouts are likely.”

Altcoin Momentum Cools

The Altcoin Season Index from CoinGlass — which gauges altcoin strength relative to BTC — dropped to 41 on Friday, down from 59 earlier in the week. That earlier reading marked the highest level since the speculative rally in January tied to the U.S. presidential inauguration.

Despite the recent pullback, altcoins (excluding stablecoins) have nearly doubled in value since April, highlighting the strength of capital flows into the sector.

Key Level Breached — But Not Confirmed

Bitcoin’s dominance, which measures its share of overall crypto market capitalization, has now fallen below its 200-day moving average — a level that previously signaled the start of multi-week altcoin rallies, most notably in 2021.

Still, Duong urged patience: “A sustained breakdown below the 200-DMA could validate the altseason narrative. But for now, traders may want to wait for more consecutive daily closes below that threshold before repositioning aggressively.”

Until then, the market remains on watch — with cautious optimism, but no confirmed breakout just yet.