Barclays anticipates a muted 2026 for crypto as spot trading volumes decline and investor enthusiasm fades.
In its year-end report, the bank flagged challenges for exchanges like Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD), noting a lack of clear catalysts to reignite retail interest. “Spot crypto trading volumes […] appear to be trending towards a down-year in FY26, and it is not clear to us what might reverse this trend,” the analysts wrote.
Crypto markets have historically surged around major events, such as product launches, policy moves, or political developments—including the March 2024 spot bitcoin ETF inflows and the pro-crypto U.S. presidential election in November. Without similar triggers, structural growth is expected to remain limited.
Regulatory clarity could provide some relief. The proposed CLARITY Act, which aims to define digital commodities versus securities and clarify SEC and CFTC oversight, may reduce uncertainty and pave the way for tokenized product launches.
Coinbase is expanding into derivatives and tokenized equities, but soft spot volumes and rising costs have led Barclays to lower its COIN price target to $291. Early-stage tokenization efforts by firms like BlackRock (BLK) and Robinhood are unlikely to materially impact 2026 earnings.
Overall, 2026 may be a transitional year for crypto, with companies focusing on long-term initiatives amid subdued market activity.
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