10X Research: Saylor’s $18B Bitcoin Decline Could Set Stage for a Bounce

MicroStrategy’s $18B Drawdown May Be Ending as Catalysts Line Up, Says 10x Research

MicroStrategy (MSTR) — widely viewed as a leveraged play on bitcoin (BTC $109,992.98) — has lost nearly $18 billion in market capitalization amid weakening sentiment and the collapse of its long-standing NAV premium. But a turnaround could be near, according to 10x Research’s Markus Thielen.

Thielen, who had previously been cautious on the stock, said in a Wednesday report that a combination of rising volatility, solid Q3 earnings expectations, and renewed speculation about S&P 500 inclusion may shift momentum in MicroStrategy’s favor.

“With the NAV premium effectively gone and sentiment washed out, MicroStrategy appears attractive at current levels,” Thielen wrote. “Right now, the stock may offer better risk-reward than bitcoin itself.”

MicroStrategy shares fell another 1.8% to below $280 on Wednesday, leaving the company valued only slightly above its bitcoin holdings — a sharp contrast from late 2024, when speculative premiums pushed it well beyond underlying asset value.

Thielen estimates MicroStrategy could post around $3.6 billion in profit this quarter from mark-to-market gains on its bitcoin, potentially resetting investor sentiment and reviving S&P 500 inclusion speculation. He now assigns a 60–70% probability that the firm will be added to the index by December.

An inclusion could attract up to $28 billion in passive and active fund inflows, mirroring the surges seen in Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) after their entries into the S&P 500.

“Capitulation often feels final — until it quietly becomes the beginning,” Thielen added.