Dutch bank ING is highlighting the upside potential in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, currently at 4.09%, a development that could pressure risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Despite weak economic data, such as November’s ADP employment report—the third contraction in five months—the yield has remained above 4%, in line with CoinDesk’s outlook.
“Treasuries love that 4% to 4.1% trading range. Temporary break below more likely. But break above has more legs,” ING said in a note to clients Thursday.
The yield briefly fell to 4.06% after the ADP report but quickly rebounded, defying the usual pattern where soft labor and inflation data signal lower rates. Even with an 87% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month, the 10-year yield has traded steadily between 4% and 4.20% since September.
ING attributes this resilience to structural shifts in the U.S. economy, where productivity gains—partly fueled by AI—are now driving growth more than employment. “Fewer net immigrants reduce the need for job creation, while productivity growth is steering expansion,” the analysts wrote.
Looking ahead, Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report could trigger volatility. A softer reading may push yields temporarily below 4%, while a decisive move above 4.1% could mark a more sustained trend, shaping market dynamics into 2026.
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